Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
